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Quelle est la probabilité d’une équipe de NFL à Londres?
Par: Travis Brody
Traduit par: Lorenz Plassmann
Nombreux sont ceux qui doutent de la viabilité d’une équipe de NFL basée à Londres. Avant que la Ligue de Football américain ne crée en 2007 la première édition des Séries internationales de la NFL, qui a lieu au Royaume-uni, les sceptiques affirmaient que la ligue nourrissait des attentes irréalistes quant au développement du Football américain à l’étranger.
Certes, depuis ce premier match de 2007, les Séries internationales de la NFL sont passées de un à trois matches par an, et la fan base s’est avérée suffisamment importante pour remplir à chaque fois le stade de Wembley, à Londres. En fait, chaque match (à l’exception de la saison 2011 en raison de la grève patronale qui frappa la NFL) affiche complet bien avant le début du coup d’envoi. En 2015, plus de 40000 personnes on acheté des billets pour l’ensemble des trois matches, ce qui représente presque la moitié des places. Les matches ont un tel succès que la NFL envisage de délocaliser quatre rencontres en 2016, et elle l’aurait probablement déjà fait en 2015 si l’Angleterre n’avait pas accueilli la Coupe du monde de Rugby.
Mais il y a une énorme différence entre délocaliser trois matches de la saison régulière à Londres et y déménager définitivement une franchise. La NFL et l’éventuelle équipe de Londres feraient face à un certain nombre de défis. Pourtant, malgré ces obstacles, rien n’empêche véritablement la venue définitive d’une équipe.
La NFL n’a pas manifesté son intention d’augmenter le nombre de franchises au-delà des 32 équipes actuelles, donc toute référence à une éventuelle équipe à Londres implique qu’une franchise déjà existante y soit transférée de manière permanente.
Voici les 7 principaux défis quant à l’établissement d’une franchise de la NFL à Londres:
1. Temps et distance
Une des principales objections à la relocalisation d’une équipe de NFL au Royaume-uni est la distance qui la séparerait des autres équipes de la ligue. Il est indéniable qu’une franchise londonienne serait un lointain avant-poste, non seulement en tant que seule équipe non-américaine, mais aussi comme unique équipe de l’autre côté de l’Atlantique. Des questions comme le décalage horaire et les changements de fuseau horaire ont également été soulevées. Bien entendu, ce sont là des problèmes qui ne peuvent être surmontés.
La distance entre Londres et Boston — la ville de NFL la plus proche — est de 5261 km (3269 miles), avec un temps de vol moyen de 6 heures et 45 minutes. La distance entre Miami et Seattle (les deux villes de NFL les plus éloignées) est de 4384 km (2724 miles) avec une temps de vol moyen de 6 heures et 5 minutes. Le vol entre Londres et Boston n’est plus long que de 40 minutes, par rapport à celui reliant Miami et Seattle. Somme toute, la distance est en soi une question mineure.
De plus, la NFL remédierait aux problèmes du décalage horaire et des changements de fuseau horaire en programmant plusieurs matches consécutifs à domicile mais également plusieurs matches consécutifs à l’extérieur. Avec 16 matches de saison régulière (dont 8 à l’extérieur), une équipe londonienne n’aurait à faire que quatre allers-retours entre Londres et les Etats-Unis. Si la NFL fait preuve de créativité, elle pourrait programmer 3 matches d’affilée à l’extérieur, et faire baisser à trois le nombre d’allers-retours transatlantiques.
Alors que trois à quatre allers-retours transatlantiques pourraient sembler décourageants pour certains, la plupart des joueurs et des coaches s’y adapteraient. Par ailleurs, une équipe londonienne aurait un important avantage sur le terrain, car elle jouerait contre des équipes qui ne sont pas habituées à ce déplacement. Cela aiderait l’équipe à être très tôt compétitive. Elle devrait également conserver une base aux Etats-Unis, avec notamment un centre d’entraînement et des bureaux, ce qui faciliterait considérablement la transition.
L’équipe à qui l’on pense souvent en premier est les Jaguars de Jacksonville, qui doit jouer un match à Londres chaque saison jusqu’en 2020. Si cette équipe devait finalement déménager à Londres, elle devrait changer de division. Les Jaguars, qui jouent actuellement dans la division AFC South de la NFL, échangeraient avec les Miami Dolphins pour jouer dans la AFC East, une modification assez harmonieuse. Les Dolphins sont déjà situés dans la Sud, et cela diminuerait le temps de vol moyen pour les deux équipes. Les Jaguars auraient alors comme adversaires de division les Buffalo Bills, les New England Patriots et les New York Jets, avec des temps de vol moyens entre 6:45 et 7:30. Cela rend le voyage à Londres d’autant plus réaliste, pour la NFL.
2. La franchise qui déménagerait à Londres serait probablement une équipe faible
Ils est inevitable que l’équipe qui se relocalisera à Londres sera une équipe ayant connu plusieurs saisons négatives aux États-Unis.
C’est souvent en raison de son mauvais jeu qu’une équipe voit le soutien de ses supporters locaux diminuer, justifiant la décision initiale de partir.
Etant donné leur manque de victoires et une couverture médiatique modeste, les Jaguars devraient en temps normal être dans les derniers, en terme de nombre de fans au Royaume-uni, et pourtant, ils y ont le plus gros fan club, comparé aux autres équipes de NFL. L’Union JAX (jeu de mot avec Union Jack, le drapeau britannique) — nom du fan club des Jaguars au Royaume-uni — revendique plus de 33000 membres et continue de grossir. Il y a trois raisons à cela.
Premièrement, les Jaguars on déjà joué deux fois à Londres (de même que les Dolphins de Miami et les Buccaneers de Tamp Bay), et doivent encore y jouer chaque année jusqu’à la saison 2016. Puisqu’ils se rendent régulièrement à Londres et doivent y jouer chaque saison, ils bénéficient d’une exposition beaucoup plus importante que n’importe quelle autre équipe. Ensuite, les Jaguars emploient à Londres deux équipes à plein temps pour y coordonner le marketing de la franchise. Ils ont surtout investi dans le développement d’une fanbase, et ces efforts portent leurs fruits, comme on peut le voir avec l’Union JAX. Enfin, les Jaguars sont une équipe jeune et passionnante, avec des maillots au design moderne et aux couleurs flashy. Sur le plan visuel, les Jaguars sont attirants, et ils sont en train de devenir des outsiders sympathiques pour ceux qui les suivent. Leurs supporters sont patients, car l’équipe s’est restructurée autour d’un groupe de joueurs jeunes et d’excellent niveau.
3. 8 matches manqueraient d’intérêt
Bien entendu, chaque saison la NFL est capable d’assurer à Londres trois matches à guichets fermés. C’est encore quelque chose de nouveau dans la capitale britannique, mais qu’en sera-t-il lorsqu’il faudra remplir le stade huit fois par an?
Une des qualités notables des supporters britanniques dans n’importe quel sport, c’est la fidélité à leur équipe, peut-être plus que partout ailleurs dans le monde. Une fois qu’ils soutiennent les 49ers, les Cowboys ou les Bears, ils les soutiennent à vie. Il se définissent à travers ce soutien, et chaque fan de NFL est déjà le supporter d’une équipe en particulier. Changer pour une autre équipe est très improbable au Royaume-uni, c’est le moins que l’on puisse dire. Toute équipe qui se rendrait à Londres devrait prendre cela en compte.
Il est vrai aussi qu’une dynamique intéressante s’est développée au cours des dernières années à l’occasion des Séries internationales de la NFL. De nombreux fans de NFL ont commencé à faire des Jaguars de Jacksonville leur deuxième équipe de coeur, en raison de leur engagement sur le marché britannique. Depuis que les Jags sont devenus, de facto, l’équipe locale, les supporters d’autres équipes ont commencé à avoir un petit faible pour eux. Malgré le fait que l’équipe finisse en milieu de tableau de l’AFC South depuis quatre ans et n’ait plus gagné leur championnat de division depuis 1999, le soutien des fans pour cette équipe est en pleine progression.
Il est vrai que devoir vendre huit matches des Jaguars dans l’année est un énorme défi. Cette équipe n’y arrive même pas chez elle, à Jacksonville : la dernière fois que les Jaguars ont rempli leur stade d’EverBank Field c’était le 23 septembre 2012 pour un match contre les Colts d’Indianapolis. Bien que le potentiel à Londres soit beaucoup plus important qu’à Jacksonville, cela ne garantit pas que les matches se joueront à guichets fermés.
Ce qui est déterminant pour remplir un stade, cependant, n’est pas tant le nombre de fans que les Jaguars pourront faire venir, du moins pas immédiatement, mais plutôt combien de supporters de l’équipe adverse feront le déplacement.
Jusqu’à présent, les Séries internationales de la NFL ont montré que n’importe quel match se jouant à Londres est assuré d’être complet, quelles que soient les équipes qui s’affrontent. La raison en est que des équipes comme les Patriots, les Rams, les Falcons, les Saints et bien d’autres encore, ne jouent à Londres que rarement, et leurs supporters, qui y voient à chaque fois une occasion unique, sont prêts à dépenser leur argent. On peut raisonnablement penser qu’il y aurait davantage de fans de l’équipe en déplacement à Londres que de supporters des Jaguars. Aussi, il se peut qu’il y ait une rivalité naissante entre les futurs fans des Jaguars qui supporterons leur équipe à domicile et les fans au Royaume-uni qui soutiennent d’autres équipes de la NFL. Cela contribue à faire de l’éventualité d’une franchise à Londres une question particulièrement captivante et enthousiasmante.
N’oublions pas non plus que cette nouvelle équipe à Londres serait la seule et unique équipe de NFL en Europe, avec un monopole de la franchise sur tout le marché européen.
4. Les joueurs de NFL ne veulent pas jouer à Londres
Etes-vous déjà allé à Londres? C’est une ville formidable où l’on s’amuse beaucoup. Ce n’est pas la Sibérie, les joueurs ne seraient pas exilés dans une contrée lointaine et sauvage. Il règne à Londres une atmosphère vivante, c’est une des capitales financières et culturelles du monde. Des joueurs américains de football jouent régulièrement et avec beaucoup de plaisir dans la Premier League, sachant par ailleurs qu’il n’y a aucun problème de langue entre les Etats-Unis et la Grande Bretagne.
Aussi, les joueurs sont tout simplement heureux d’évoluer dans la NFL. C’est tellement difficile d’y être titulaire et de le rester, très peu de joueurs pouvant se payer le luxe d’être sélectifs dans leurs choix. Ceux qui n’ont pas la chance de pouvoir choisir leur équipe sont susceptibles de voir Londres comme une occasion unique, que d’autres villes ne peuvent offrir. A cet égard, Londres n’est ni désavantagée, ni avantagée.
5. Les équipes de NFL ne veulent pas déménager à Londres
Il est vrai que très peu d’équipes ont manifesté leur intérêt de s’installer à Londres. Il est beaucoup plus probable qu’une équipe se relocalise d’abord à Los Angeles plutôt que dans la capitale britannique. Le potentiel de marché à Los Angeles a déjà été démontré, et la ville a même déjà hébergé deux équipes simultanément, de 1982 à 1994 (les anciens Rams de Los Angeles et Raiders de Los Angeles).
Cependant, il suffit d’une seule équipe pour franchir le pas, et les Jaguars aimeraient vraiment bien s’installer à Londres, où leur propriétaire Shahid Khan, né au Pakistan, possède déjà le club du Fulham FC. Si les Jaguars n’ont pas annoncé leur intention de déménager dans la capitale britannique, c’est en partie parce qu’ils étudient encore toutes les possibilités, mais aussi pour ne pas perdre leurs supporters actuels. Ce projet n’étant pas envisageable avant 4 à 5 ans, toute annonce prématurée serait un coup de tonnerre pour les supporters situés à Jacksonville.
Le scénario le plus probable, c’est qu’une à deux équipes s’installent à Los Angeles, et une à Londres. Selon les standards américains, Jacksonville représente à marché très modeste, et Shahid Khan connaît parfaitement les avantages qu’il y aurait à accéder au marché britannique/européen. Son équipe n’aurait quasiment aucun rival en terme d’exposition médiatique. Aujourd’hui, seule l’équipe des Jaguars est particulièrement concernée par une relocalisation à Londres, mais une seule équipe suffit.
6. Des obstacles financiers trop importants (taxes, salaires, plafonds salariaux)
C’est là un des arguments les plus avancés, mais probablement le moins pertinent. De tous les défis qui s’offrent à la National Football League, l’argent est vraiment le moins important. Les ressources financières de cette ligue multimilliardaires sont infinies, et la question financière n’est qu’un simple obstacle, pas un cul-de-sac.
La ligue finira par octroyer à la franchise londonienne une exemption spéciale lui permettant de modifier le salaire des joueurs afin de le mettre à niveau, dans un pays où la fiscalité est différente et le niveau de vie plus élevé que dans certaines villes des Etats-Unis. Accessoirement, si cela implique pour la NFL de devoir augmenter le plafond salarial pour permettre à la franchise londonienne de se mettre à niveau, elle le fera sans l’ombre d’un doute. Par ailleurs, le gouvernement britannique a fait connaître sa décision d’offrir des réductions d’impôt à l’équipe qui viendrait s’installer à Londres. Les défis financiers n’empêcheront en rien la NFL de soutenir la relocalisation d’une franchise dans la capitale britannique.
Lors des matches de saison régulière joués à Londres, le salaire hebdomadaire versé aux joueurs prend déjà en compte les taxes britanniques, lesquelles sont récupérées par l’Etat, puisque les salaires sont, techniquement, gagnés sur le territoire britannique.
7. La NFL a déjà essayé de pénétrer le marché européen, sans succès
En effet, la World League of American Football/NFL Europe n’a pas comblé les espoirs de la NFL. La ligue avait cru pouvoir profiter de ce marché nouveau et d’y faire des profits, en s’installant sur le continent pour de nombreuses années. Mais cela n’a pas fonctionné comme les propriétaires de la NFL l’espéraient.
The Growth of a Game a déjà abordé cette question à de nombreuses reprises, et la conclusion semble parfaitement claire : le manque de continuité. La ligue a lutté pour se maintenir à flot année après année, aussi bien du point de vue financier, que sur un plan humain et en terme d’engouement des supporters. A chaque nouvelle saison, les équipes types étaient presque entièrement modifiées, ce qui empêchait les fans d’encourager et de s’attacher à des joueurs en particulier. Les joueurs de second plan n’étaient tout simplement pas aussi convaincants que les meilleurs joueurs de la NFL. La ligue a suspendu son activité au cours des saisons 1993 et 1994, pour ensuite faire le choix de la stabilité plutôt que du développement, à la suite d’une affaire qui a débuté en Allemagne. Au final, la ligue plus devenue la NFL Allemagne que la NFL Europa. Lorsque les pertes financières se sont révélées trop importantes et trop constantes, elle a cessé son activité.
La différence entre la NFL Europa et un élargissement à la ville de Londres tient dans le fait qu’une équipe de NFL est immuable. Elle a accès aux meilleurs talents du monde entier, et possède un noyau de joueurs qui l’accompagnent pendant des années. La NFL Europe avait un trop grand turnover de joueurs, et donnait toujours l’impression qu’elle était sur le point de s’effondrer. Cela n’arriverait jamais à une équipe de la NFL.
Le visage du Football américain en Europe a également beaucoup changé depuis 2007. Le nombre d’équipes a presque doublé, et des ligues ont vu le jour dans des pays comme le Portugal, la Roumanie, la Lettonie, l’Estonie, et bien d’autres encore. La NFL est très largement devenue accessible, grâce à la diffusion en streaming et en direct des matches, et il n’a jamais été aussi facile de suivre son équipe préférée.
Quels que soient les problèmes qui s’annoncent, ils ne sont que de simples défis pour la NFL, ils ne seront jamais des obstacles insurmontables. La NFL montrera bientôt combien une équipe à Londres sera acclamée et viable sur le plan financier, pour tous ceux qui feront partie de l’aventure. Nous attendons tous cela avec une immense impatience.
Soutiendriez-vous une équipe de NFL qui s’installe à Londres? Quels autres arguments, selon vous, s’opposeraient à une telle relocalisation? N’hésitez pas à nous faire part de vos commentaires dans la section ci-dessous.
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